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新型传染病爆发期间,关于它的谣言对社会的危害可能更胜于病毒本身。本文分析了关于新型病毒谣言传播的要素,包括:与谣言有关事件的重要程度、谣言内容的可能性、谣言的传播途径、谣言传播范围与人口、谣言传播的时间等。并分析了辟谣工作的关键要素,包括:公众的科学素养或谣言判断力、辟谣内容的证据科学性、辟谣的途径、辟谣范围与范围内的人口、辟谣时间、对造谣者与用谣者的惩罚等。文章针对谣言与辟谣的传播能力、传播速率、传播动量与冲量、谣言与辟谣追赶方式等提出了定量评价模型。使得谣言与辟谣现象能更好的直接体现和控制,可以极大的提高辟谣部门辟谣行动的有效性。
During the outbreak of a new infectious disease, the rumors about it may be more harmful to society than the virus itself. This article analyzes the key elements of the spread of new virus rumors, including the importance of rumors, the possibility of rumors, the route of rumors, the scope and population of rumors, the time of rumor spreading, and so on. And analyzes the key elements of rumor work, including the scientific literacy or rumor judgment of the public, the scientific evidence of the rumor content, the way of denouncing the rumor, the population within the rumor scope and scope, the rumor time, the rumor and the rumor Punishment and so on. The article puts forward a quantitative evaluation model based on the ability of communication, the rate of transmission, the momentum and impulse of rumor and rumor and the way of catching up with rumor. The rumor and the rumor can be directly reflected and controlled, which can greatly improve the effectiveness of the rumor operation in the rumor department.