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目的了解长沙地区2006～2011年临床用血情况,并建立ARIMA模型预测临床血液需求量,为献血者的招募提供理论依据。方法采用回顾性研究方法,收集2006年1月～2012年4月长沙地区临床用血资料,分析变化趋势并建立ARIMA时间序列模型预测2012年5～7月份临床血液需求量。结果2006～2011年长沙地区临床用血量增加了约70%,年平均增长速度10%;2006～2010年保持增长的趋势,2010后达到平衡,略有下降;建立的ARIMA(3,1,0)模型很好的拟合了临床血液需求量,2012年5～6月份的预测值与实际值基本一致。
Objective To understand the clinical use of blood in Changsha from 2006 to 2011 and to establish the ARIMA model to predict the clinical blood demand and provide a theoretical basis for the recruitment of blood donors. Methods A retrospective study was conducted to collect clinical blood samples from January 2006 to April 2012 in Changsha, analyze the trend of changes and establish ARIMA time series model to predict the clinical blood demand from May to July in 2012. Results The clinical blood volume in Changsha area increased by about 70% from 2006 to 2011, with an average annual growth rate of 10%. From 2006 to 2010, the blood volume maintained a trend of increase with a slight decrease after 2010; ARIMA (3,1, 0) The model fitted well the clinical blood demand, and the predicted values from May to June in 2012 are basically in line with the actual values.