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本文根据2000-2010年26个省份的面板数据,对社会保障参与率进行了分解,采用动态广义矩估计的方法分析了五种社会保险参与率对消费率的影响。结论表明:生育保险与工伤保险参与率直接或间接地正向影响消费率;医疗保险与失业保险参与率对消费率的影响存在经济增长的“U”型拐点;而养老保险参与率则存在“倒U”型拐点,我国目前已经接近医疗保险参与率的拐点,越过了养老保险和失业保险的拐点。
Based on the panel data of 26 provinces from 2000 to 2010, this paper decomposed social security participation rate and analyzed the influence of five social insurance participation rates on the consumption rate by using the method of dynamic generalized moment estimation. The conclusion shows that the participation rate of maternity insurance and work-related injury insurance positively or indirectly affects the consumption rate directly or indirectly; the participation rate of medical insurance and unemployment insurance has a “U” inflection point of economic growth on the impact of the rate of increase; while the pension participation rate There is an inflection point of “inverted U” type. At present, China has approached the inflection point of the participation rate of medical insurance and surpassed the inflection point of pension insurance and unemployment insurance.