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本文利用1997-2010年31个省份的数据建立空间滞后模型(SAR模型)和空间误差模型(SEM模型),分析中国政府支出对居民消费的影响。SAR模型和SEM模型表明人均收入和政府民生支出对居民消费产生了显著的引致效应,基本建设支出和行政管理支出对居民消费产生了显著的挤出效应;SAR模型中的空间滞后项系数显著为负,表明各地区政府支出对居民消费的影响存在空间异质性;SEM模型表明居民消费支出除受到相邻省份人均收入、基本建设支出、民生支出和行政管理支出的影响外,还受到空间相邻的不可观测因素的影响。
In this paper, the space lag model (SAR model) and spatial error model (SEM model) were established by using the data of 31 provinces from 1997 to 2010 to analyze the influence of Chinese government expenditure on household consumption. SAR model and SEM model show that per capita income and government livelihood spending have a significant inducing effect on household consumption, while capital expenditure and administrative expenditure have a significant crowding-out effect on household consumption. The coefficient of spatial lag in SAR model is significantly Negative, indicating that there is spatial heterogeneity in the impact of government expenditures on household consumption in different regions. The SEM model shows that in addition to the impact of per capita income, capital expenditure, people’s livelihood expenditures and administrative expenses in neighboring provinces, the consumer spending is affected by the spatial phase The impact of unobservable factors of neighbors.