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2006年以来,我国外贸出口增长保持平稳,进口增长有所加快,外贸商品结构进一步优化,但贸易顺差继续激增长,国际收支失衡状况有所加剧。预计全年进出口总额将突破1.76万亿美元,贸易顺差达到1700亿美元左右。2007年,我国外贸发展的环境基本上是有利的,但制约因素有所增加。一方面,国民经济将持续快速增长,我国产品的国际竞争力显著提升,为外贸发展创造良好条件;国家促进国际收支平衡的政策调控力度将加大,会使出口增长更趋于理性、进口增长加速,外贸发展质量有所提高。另一方面,世界经济增长有所减缓、人民币汇率波动加大对出口的影响将进一步显现,国家宏观调控制约投资过热将对进口产生一定影响。初步预计,2007年我国进出口增长速度将明显下降,全年进、出口增长速度将分别达到17%、15%,进出口增长更趋均衡。但贸易顺差规模仍难以出现明显缩小,全年贸易顺差约2200亿美元,比2006年增加近500亿美元。促进进出口贸易平衡发展成为实现经济持续稳定发展的重要问题。
Since 2006, the growth of China’s exports has remained steady. The growth of imports has accelerated. The structure of foreign trade products has been further optimized. However, the trade surplus has continued to surge and the balance of payments imbalance has been aggravating. The total annual import and export volume is expected to exceed 1.76 trillion U.S. dollars with a trade surplus of about 170 billion U.S. dollars. In 2007, the environment for the development of China’s foreign trade is basically favorable, but the restrictive factors have increased. On the one hand, the national economy will continue to grow rapidly and the international competitiveness of our products will be significantly improved, creating favorable conditions for the development of foreign trade; the government will increase its regulatory control over the balance of payments and make the export growth more rational and import The growth accelerated and the quality of foreign trade development improved. On the other hand, the world economic growth has slowed down and the impact of the RMB exchange rate volatility on exports will be further revealed. Overheating of investment by state macro-control will have an impact on imports. It is initially estimated that the growth rate of China’s import and export will drop significantly in 2007, and the annual growth rate of import and export will reach 17% and 15% respectively, with a more balanced import and export growth. However, the size of the trade surplus is still hard to see a significant reduction in the annual trade surplus of about 220 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of nearly 50 billion U.S. dollars over 2006. Promote the balanced development of import and export trade has become an important issue for achieving sustained and steady economic development.