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本文分析了横门站历史台风潮资料,86％的台风潮高潮水位出现在天文潮高潮前后1小时。历年实测的最高潮水位在排位最前的也是出现在天文潮高潮前后1小时。以实测的前一天相应高潮水位作为预报主要因素,台风要素作为参变数,建立4元线性回归预报方程,预报台风潮高潮水位。预报方程按照水利部1985年颁发的《水文情报预报规范》,按许可误差标准进行评定,预报方案属甲级,精度是好的。
In this paper, we analyze the historical typhoon data of Hengmen station, and 86% of the typhoon tidewater level occurs 1 hour before and after astronomical orgasm. The highest tide level measured over the years in the forefront of the highest astronomical tide also appears in 1 hour before and after the climax. Taking the corresponding orgasm water level of the previous day as the main factor for forecasting and the typhoon element as the parameter number, a 4-element linear regression forecasting equation was established to forecast the typhoon tidewater level. The prediction equation is evaluated according to the allowable error standard according to the “Hydrological Information Prediction Specification” issued by the Ministry of Water Resources in 1985, and the prediction scheme is Grade A, and the accuracy is good.