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违约风险是当前我国订单农业发展面临的主要问题,“订单+期货”模式作为违约风险管理的探索在理论与实践中受到重视。本文建立引入期货交易前后的市场均衡模型,通过模型求解及数值分析,考察“订单+期货”模式管理违约风险的条件。研究表明,期货市场的引入能够直接转移收购企业的订单价格风险,提高其履约能力;同时,在具有需求价格弹性较低、种植成本较高等特征的农产品市场上,期货市场的引入有助于稳定现货价格波动,降低农户等无法直接进入期货市场的主体所面临的价格风险,有利于订单履约率的提高。
The default risk is the main problem facing the development of order agriculture in our country. The exploration of “order + futures” mode as the management of default risk has drawn great attention in theory and practice. This paper establishes the market equilibrium model before and after the introduction of futures trading, examines the conditions for managing the default risk through the model solution and numerical analysis. The research shows that the introduction of the futures market can directly shift the order price risk of the acquiring company and enhance its performance ability. At the same time, the introduction of the futures market helps to stabilize the agricultural products market which has the characteristics of lower demand price elasticity and higher planting cost Spot price fluctuations, reducing the price risk faced by farmers and other entities that can not directly enter the futures market are conducive to the improvement of order fulfillment rates.