论文部分内容阅读
[目的]基于网络直报系统数据,模拟实时监测,探索前瞻性时空扫描统计量在传染病早期预警中的应用。[方法]模拟实时监测系统,采用前瞻性时空扫描统计量对上海市、江苏省、浙江省214个区县2005年1月1日到12月31日麻疹病例数据进行逐日前瞻性时空聚集性分析。[结果]前瞻性时空扫描统计量能有效探测到麻疹时空聚集性。其中开始于3省交界区县的麻疹时空聚集性有较强的实际意义。[结论]前瞻性时空扫描统计量能充分挖掘和利用传染病监测数据信息,探测到时空两个维度的聚集性,在实际工作中具有潜在的重要应用价值。
[Objective] Based on the data of network direct reporting system, simulate real-time monitoring and explore the application of forward-looking spatio-temporal scanning statistics in early warning of infectious diseases. [Methods] Simulated real-time monitoring system was used to prospectively analyze the data of measles cases from January 1 to December 31, 2005 in 214 districts and counties of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces by prospective time-space scanning statistics . [Results] The prospective spatio-temporal scanning statistics can effectively detect the spatiotemporal aggregability of measles. Which started in the three provinces bordering the measles space-time aggregation has a strong practical significance. [Conclusion] The prospective spatio-temporal scanning statistics can fully tap and utilize the infectious disease surveillance data and detect the aggregation of two dimensions in time and space, and has potential value in practical application.