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目的研究厦门市恙虫病的流行特征并探讨ARIMA模型拟合厦门市恙虫病发病趋势预测及效果评价。方法搜集并整理厦门市2008-2014年恙虫病病例数据,对该数据分别进行性别、职业和年龄分组频数统计分析,并计算其发病率,描述厦门市恙虫病发病时间分布和人群分布;利用SPSS软件通过差分等方法对恙虫病月发病数序列进行平稳化,然后进行模型参数的估计、检验,最优模型的筛选,最后进行预测分析。结果2008-2014年厦门市恙虫病年平均发病率为2.42/10万,发病的季节分布主要集中在6-9月,发病主要集中在40~69岁年龄组,ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12较好地拟合了厦门市恙虫病的月发病数据,预测效果良好。结论近年来厦门市恙虫病发病率呈逐年上升趋势且伴随着年龄的增高而增高,运用ARIMA模型进行短期预测,为评价防控措施效果提供科学依据。
Objective To study the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus in Xiamen and to explore the prediction and evaluation of the incidence of scrub typhus in Xiamen by ARIMA model. Methods The data of tsutsugamushi disease from 2008 to 2014 in Xiamen were collected and analyzed. The data were analyzed by gender, occupation and age group frequency respectively. The incidence of tsutsugamushi disease in Xiamen was described. The distribution of tsutsugamushi disease in Xiamen was described. The software stabilizes the monthly incidence of tsutsugamushi disease by differential method, and then estimates the model parameters, tests the optimal model screening, and finally carries out the prediction analysis. Results The annual average incidence of tsutsugamushi disease in Xiamen was 2.42 / lakh in 2008-2014. The seasonal distribution of the disease was mainly in the period from June to September. The incidence mainly concentrated in the age group of 40-69 years. ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (0, 1, 0) 12 fitted the monthly incidence of scrub typhus in Xiamen well, and the prediction effect was good. Conclusion The incidence of scrub typhus in Xiamen has been increasing year by year with the increase of age. The ARIMA model is used for short-term prediction to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the effect of prevention and control measures.