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目的通过参考Newton登革热传播模型及SIR仓室模型,建立登革热数学模型,以深入研究输入型登革热的流行规律和评价不同防治措施的效果。方法建立当时实际相吻合的登革热传播模型,模拟描述2004年浙江省慈溪市逍林镇登革热暴发流行,同时结合当时实际研究登革热流行情况。结果根据模型可得出总的人均蚊媒密度阈值为2.4只,登革热人群免疫抗体水平>67.8%时,才有可能在登革热病原体输入后不发生登革热的流行暴发。结论数学模型模拟结果与现场调查比较接近,特别是暴发的中后期相对较为吻合,在实际的现场流行病控制中数学模型的应用将为疫情的控制提供必要的帮助和参考意见。
OBJECTIVE: To establish a mathematical model of dengue fever with reference to the Newton dengue transmission model and SIR compartment model to study the epidemiology of imported dengue fever and to evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures. Methods The actual dengue transmission model was established to simulate the epidemic of dengue fever in Xiao Lin Town, Cixi City, Zhejiang Province in 2004. Results According to the model, the total population mosquito density threshold was 2.4, and the dengue fever population was more than 67.8%, it was possible that dengue fever would not occur after the dengue pathogen input. Conclusions The results of mathematical model simulation are close to the field investigation, especially the mid-late period of outbreak is relatively consistent. The application of mathematical model in the actual on-site epidemic control will provide the necessary help and reference for the control of epidemic situation.