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荐股评级出现乐观倾向,是当前全球证券分析师行业存在的一个突出问题。基于欺诈三角理论,本研究从压力、机会和合理化解释三方面对分析师荐股评级乐观倾向成因进行了理论分析,并以2010~2012年间中国证券分析师发布的21054个荐股评级数据为研究对象进行了实证检验。结果表明机构投资者持股比例越高,证券分析师越倾向于发布乐观的评级报告,而且在乐观评级情况下,分析师所推荐股票达到或者超过其预测的概率越高。本文的研究有利于投资者更为科学地审视分析师的荐股评级,并为监管部门提供政策参考。
There is an optimistic tendency in the rating of stocks, which is a prominent issue in the current global securities analyst industry. Based on the fraud triangle theory, this study analyzes the causes of the optimistic tendency of analysts’ recommendation of stocks from the aspects of pressure, opportunity and rationalization. And based on the research results of 21054 recommendation ratings data released by Chinese securities analysts from 2010 to 2012 The object is tested empirically. The results show that the higher institutional investors hold a higher proportion, the more inclined analysts are to issue optimistic rating reports and the higher the probability that analysts recommend stocks to meet or exceed their forecasts in the case of optimistic ratings. The research in this article is conducive to investors looking more scientifically at analysts’ recommendation and providing policy reference for regulators.