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鉴于突出预测技术存在的临界值标准越来越不合实际这个现状,及根据煤矿日常检验数据的庞大性及无规律随机波动性,分析选用数理统计中基于正态分布检验的SPC控制图处理法,应用于平煤十三矿日常使用的钻屑量S值、瓦斯涌出初速度q值的接触式突出预测法,得出各项指标的估计临界值,再结合理论分析与实际情况分析,预测结果均比较准确。此方法具有对数据处理的规范性及临界值确定的准确性等优点,在煤矿安全预测领域具有一定推广的意义。
In view of the fact that the critical value standard of predictive technology is becoming more and more unrealistic, and based on the hugeness and irregular random volatility of coal mine daily inspection data, the SPC control chart processing method based on normal distribution test in mathematical statistics is selected. Applied to the routine use of Pingdingshan No. 13 drill cuttings S value, the initial rate of gas emission q value of the contact projection prediction method, come to the estimated critical value of each indicator, combined with theoretical analysis and actual situation analysis, forecast results Are more accurate. This method has the advantages of the standardization of data processing and the accuracy of the critical value determination, which has certain promotion significance in the field of coal mine safety prediction.