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本文利用SVAR模型识别出了“外生”的财政冲击,并在此基础上实证研究了财政冲击对经常账户和实际有效汇率的影响,结果显示:我国扩张性的财政冲击会带来经常账户的恶化、实际利率的上升和实际汇率的贬值,而且财政扩张对经常账户的冲击影响有较长的持续性。我们认为外部失衡的根源在于国内储蓄和投资之间的缺口,我国当前财政政策空间巨大,通过扩大政府投资和提升投资效率,可以在提升经济增长潜力的同时,弥补缺口从而实现内外部再平衡。
In this paper, we use the SVAR model to identify the fiscal impact of “exogenous ” and on the basis of this empirical study of the impact of fiscal shocks on the current account and real effective exchange rate, the results show that: China’s expansionary fiscal impact will bring frequent The deterioration of the account, the rise in real interest rates and the devaluation of the real exchange rate, and the long-term effects of fiscal expansion on the current account impact. In our opinion, the root cause of the external imbalance lies in the gap between domestic savings and investment. With tremendous room for fiscal policy in our country, expanding the government investment and boosting investment efficiency can make up for the gap and achieve internal and external rebalancing while enhancing the potential for economic growth.