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本文基于中国保险市场2008年1月-2012年6月的月度数据,分析发现保费收入增长对于通货膨胀的反应是非对称的。本文运用Hansen(2000)门限回归模型,以通货膨胀率为门限变量,确定了门限值为3%,在此基础上进一步考察通货膨胀对保费收入的非线性影响。结果发现:通货膨胀对保费增长有抑制作用,且当通货膨胀率小于3%时,通货膨胀对保费的增长的抑制作用更明显。
Based on the monthly data of China’s insurance market from January 2008 to June 2012, this paper finds that the response to the inflationary growth of premium income is asymmetric. In this paper, we use the Hansen (2000) threshold regression model and the inflation rate as the threshold variable to determine the threshold value of 3%, on the basis of which we further investigate the non-linear impact of inflation on premium income. The result shows that inflation has a restraining effect on the growth of premiums, and when the inflation rate is less than 3%, inflation has a more pronounced inhibitory effect on the growth of premiums.