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情报研究中,用数学模型能精确地揭示情报利用量的数量关系,并能进行定量分析。但此模型必须要:1.有大量的样本;2.有典型的概率分布。实际工作中,医学情报需求资料难以具备上述条件。为制订计划及需求研究提供依据,本文试用灰色系统DM(1,1)模型对我市3个图书室1986年9月至12月医学情报求知人次进行预测预报。旨在探讨DM(1,1)模型在医学情报预测中应用的可能性。确定预测模型预测值误差的大小,取决于预测模型的
In intelligence research, using mathematical models to accurately reveal the quantitative relationship between intelligence utilization and quantitative analysis. But this model must: 1. Have a large number of samples; 2. Have a typical probability distribution. In actual work, medical intelligence needs information is difficult to have the above conditions. In order to provide the basis for planning and requirement research, this paper tries to forecast and forecast the number of people seeking medical information from September 1986 to December in three libraries in our city by using the gray system DM (1,1) model. The purpose is to explore the possibility of using DM (1,1) model in the prediction of medical information. Determine the size of the prediction model prediction error, depending on the prediction model