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尽管过去50年的人口增长高峰使全球人口翻了番还要多,最近发表在《自然》杂志上的一篇论文却预言全球人口将会在2070年达到90亿的蜂值并开始下降。论文作者之一、纽约州立大学经济学及历史学教授沃伦·桑德森说:“长期以来的观念是人类会无节制地繁衍直至灭亡。人们认为我们会生出太多的孩子,以致这个星球上再无立锥之地。但是现在看来人口会有一个上限,这是一个好消息。”这篇论文首次提出了人口膨胀的极限。科学家们估计有85%的可能到2100年全球人口会逐步减少到84亿。目前全球人口为61亿。此前联合国所作的人口统计学研究
Even though the peak in population growth over the past 50 years has more than doubled the global population, a recent paper published in the journal Nature predicted that the global population would reach 9 billion in 2070 and begin to decline. Warren Sanderson, a professor of economics and history at New York State University, one of the authors of the paper, said: “It has long been the belief that mankind will uncontrollably multiply and perish, and people think we will have so many children that this There is no point on the planet, but now it seems the population will have a ceiling, which is good news. ”For the first time, this essay puts the limits of population expansion at bay. Scientists estimate that 85% of the world population will be gradually reduced to 8.4 billion by 2100. The current global population of 6.1 billion. Previous demographic studies by the United Nations