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本文分析了帕米尔—天山—阿尔泰—蒙古地震带,1887—1985年Ms≥7.0级的强震资料,发现该地震带内存在着明显的强震活动期。每一个地震活动期内大震的累积频度曲线大致呈指数函数变化。笔者用最小二乘法拟合了第一、二活动期,用这二个期中指数函数系数的平均值外推第三活动期最近二次强震的时间间隔进行检验,理论值为7.5年,实际时间为7.5年,效果较好。据此推算下一次Ms≥7.0级强震的发生时间应在1989年。认为1987年至1989年,该带地震活动水平将有所增强。
This paper analyzes the data of strong earthquakes in the Pamir-Tianshan-Altai-Mongolia Seismic Belt and Ms≥7.0 in 1887-1985 and finds that there is a significant period of strong earthquakes in the seismic zone. The cumulative frequency curve of major earthquakes during each earthquake activity changes roughly exponentially. The author uses the least square method to fit the first and second periods of activity. The average of the exponential function coefficients in these two periods is extrapolated to the time interval of the last two strong earthquakes in the third period of activity, with a theoretical value of 7.5 years. The actual Time is 7.5 years, the effect is better. According to the projection of the next Ms ≥ 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurrence time should be in 1989. It is believed that the seismic activity level of this belt will be enhanced from 1987 to 1989.