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人口红利是指人口转变中的某一阶段出现充足供给劳动力和高储蓄率给经济带来的正面影响。人口红利之后将面临高老年人口比所导致的人口负债。本文在理论层面讨论人口转变与经济增长的关系,认为人口红利期劳动力增长和高储蓄率是经济增长的动力,人口红利期之后必须通过资本积累、技术进步和人力资源开发,才能保持可持续增长。研究了中国充分挖掘人口转变潜在贡献的现实困境,给出后人口红利时代的理性建议。
Demographic dividend refers to the positive impact of sufficient supply of labor force and high savings rate on the economy in a certain stage of population transition. After the demographic dividend will face the population debt caused by the high elderly population ratio. This paper discusses the relationship between population change and economic growth at the theoretical level. It considers that the growth of labor force and high savings rate during the demographic dividend period are the driving force of economic growth. Only after the demographic dividend must pass the capital accumulation, technological progress and human resources development can we maintain the sustainable growth . Studied the realistic dilemma that China fully tapped the potential contribution of population transition, and provided the rational suggestion of post-demographic dividend.