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本文以天津子牙循环经济产业园区为研究区域,依据京津冀(2001-2006年)统计年鉴数据和相关行业报告数据,结合京津冀地区的实际情况,采用估计模型和以社会保有量年度变化量为基础而修正过的时间梯度模型、市场供给模型、市场估计A模型和斯坦福模型,对电视机、空调、洗衣机、冰箱和电脑五大类电器所产生的电子废弃物的报废量和回收量进行预测与趋势分析,并进行比对分析。然后在此基础上以2012年为基年对预测得到的数据进行成本/收益估算,分析子牙循环经济产业区在不同区域尺度下的规模效益,思考多区域尺度环境下园区发展目标和前景。
Based on Tianjin Statistical Yearbook of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Provinces (2001-2006) and relevant industry reports, combined with the actual situation in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province, the paper uses the estimation model and the annual social security volume Volume-based, modified time-gradient models, market supply models, market estimation model A and Stanford models for scrap and recovery of e-waste from five categories of appliances, including television sets, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators and computers Forecast and trend analysis, and comparison analysis. Based on this, the cost / benefit estimate is made based on the 2012 base year, and the scale benefit of the circular economy industrial zone at different regional scales is analyzed. The development goals and prospects of the park under the multi-regional environmental standard are considered.