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目的 探求科学合理的医疗服务需求估计方法 ,以便科学地制订区域卫生规划。方法 采用回顾性分析及计量经济模型 ,以某一特大城市的 1 9个县、区作为区域 ,进行医疗服务需求的预测。结果 根据多个社会、经济因素对医疗卫生服务的影响 ,得到门诊和住院服务需求模型 ,并举例说明当价格上涨 1 5 %及 2 0 %时 ,1 9个区域未来的医疗卫生服务需求。结论 计量经济模型可用作测量医疗卫生服务需求的工具 ,但尚有需改进之处
Objective To explore scientific and rational methods for estimating medical service needs in order to scientifically formulate regional health plans. Methods A retrospective analysis and econometric model was used to estimate the demand for medical services using 19 counties and districts in a megacities as regions. Results According to the impact of multiple social and economic factors on health care services, outpatient and inpatient service demand models were obtained, and examples were given to illustrate the future demand for medical and health services in the 19 regions when prices rose by 15% and 20%. Conclusion The econometric model can be used as a tool to measure the needs of healthcare services, but there are areas for improvement.