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目前多数证券危机监管研究都侧重于对制度缺陷和外生变量线性冲击的分析,忽视了对市场波动本质的深刻理解。该文将非线性研究范式引入到证券市场监管研究认为,证券市场由波动到危机实际上是一个从稳定到不稳定的非线性演化过程。系统崩塌(危机的发生)是非线性演化过程中具有“突发性”的一环。证券市场监管应该从波动初始条件的控制、波动扩散的评估与监控、波动演化的动态监管等方面加强监管措施制定和实施。这种更关注市场自我运行的危机监管框架,能更好拟合市场运行过程并且符合系统演化的内在规律。
At present, most researches on securities crisis regulation focus on the analysis of the linear impact of institutional defects and exogenous variables, ignoring the profound understanding of the nature of market volatility. This article introduces the non-linear research paradigm into the study of the supervision of the securities market. According to the research, the stock market from volatility to crisis is actually a non-linear evolution from stability to instability. System collapse (crisis) is a “bursting” part of the nonlinear evolution. Securities market supervision should strengthen the formulation and implementation of regulatory measures from the control of the initial conditions of volatility, the assessment and monitoring of volatility and proliferation, and the dynamic regulation of volatility evolution. This regulatory framework that focuses more on market self-operation can better fit the market operation and conform to the inherent laws of system evolution.