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1998年1月10日张北-尚义发生了6.2级地震,这次地震前区域地震活动显示出了明显的异常特征,中期预报效果比较成功,对于这次地震没有作出短临预报,这既有地震孕育过程的复杂性和地震预报的高难度问题,也存在一定程度的预报技术思路问题。近几年来作者对在北京西北的晋、冀、内蒙古交界地区形成的以地震活动条带为代表的多项地震活动异常给予关注,现反思张北-尚义6.2级地震之前的某些前兆异常现象和预报过程,对于今后的地震预报研究具有借鉴的意义。
On January 10, 1998, a magnitude 6.2 earthquake occurred in Zhangbei-Shangyi. The regional seismic activity before the earthquake showed obvious anomalous characteristics. The medium-term forecast was successful. No short-term and short-term forecasts were made for this earthquake. The complicated process of earthquake breeding and the difficult problems of earthquake prediction also present a certain degree of technical problems in forecasting. In recent years, the author has paid close attention to a number of anomalies in the seismic activity belt formed in the junction areas of Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia in the northwest of Beijing. We are now rethinking some of the pre-Zhangbei-Shangyi M6.2 earthquake Prehistoric anomalies and forecasting processes have implications for future earthquake prediction research.