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本文从理论和实证两个层面分析了1997-2007年中国35个大中城市的房价动态特征,并考察了城市因素对房价动态参数的影响。所得主要结论有:中国城市房价具有强序列相关和弱均值回归特征;住房使用成本、地区市场化指数、土地交易价格指数及其变化对序列相关系数有显著影响;真实收入及其变化、建造成本、地区市场化指数对均值回归系数有显著影响;各城市的房价动态参数拟合值几乎全部落入震荡收敛区内,东部城市房价的波动振幅普遍高于中西部城市;1999年后35个大中城市的平均房价波动振幅有逐渐增大的趋势,尤其是2007年的房价波动振幅出现了非正常增长,但波动频率变化幅度不大。
This paper analyzes the dynamic characteristics of housing prices in 35 cities in China from 1997 to 2007 from the theoretical and empirical aspects, and examines the impact of urban factors on the dynamic prices of housing prices. The main conclusions are as follows: The price of housing in China has the characteristics of strong sequence correlation and weak mean regression; the cost of housing, regional market index, land transaction price index and its change have significant effect on the sequence correlation coefficient; real income and its change, construction cost , And the regional marketization index has a significant effect on the mean regression coefficient. The fitting values of the dynamic prices of house prices in almost all cities fall into the congested convergence zone. The fluctuation amplitude of house prices in the eastern cities is generally higher than that of the central and western cities. After 1999, 35 large The fluctuation amplitude of the average house price in mid-cities tends to increase gradually. Especially in 2007, the amplitude of house price fluctuations has abnormally increased, but the fluctuation frequency has not changed a lot.