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采用开都河流域大山口、焉耆水文气象站1960—2010年的观测资料,利用趋势分析、距平分析、多元回归以及线性拟合方法,分析了开都河中游、下游气温和降水变化特征,以及径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明:近50 a来,开都河流域气温总体呈上升趋势,其中大山口上升1.08℃,焉耆上升1.71℃。气温季节变化分析表明:焉耆冬季气温上升比夏季明显,大山口各季节气温变化差异不明显,总体呈上升趋势。降水年际波动较大,大山口站降水增加趋势显著,1998年降水达到50 a最大值。气温和降水对径流均有一定的影响,大山口以上相关性表现得比较明显,焉耆段相关性不强,总体上气温和降水与径流的变化均呈正相关关系。
By using the observation data from 1960 to 2010 of Dashankou and Yanqi hydrological stations in Kaidu basin, the characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Kaidu River were analyzed by trend analysis, anomaly analysis, multiple regression and linear fitting method. As well as the response of runoff to climate change. The results show that in the past 50 years, the temperature in the Kaidu River Basin has been on an upward trend, with the increase of 1.08 ° C in Dagangkou and the rise of Yanqi by 1.71 ° C. The analysis of the seasonal changes of temperature shows that the temperature rise of Yanqi in winter is more obvious than that in summer, but the difference of temperature in different seasons is not obvious, which shows a general upward trend. The annual precipitation fluctuated widely, and the precipitation in Dashankou Station increased significantly. In 1998, the precipitation reached the maximum of 50 a. Both temperature and precipitation had some effects on runoff. The correlation above Dachehankou was more obvious than that in Yanjing, but there was a positive correlation between temperature and precipitation and the change of runoff.