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近年来,鄱阳湖水沙研究集中在鄱阳湖“五河”各水文站的单站分析上,且水沙数据采用大多仅至21世纪初期,对缺测资料未进行有效插补。将鄱阳湖作为一个研究整体,分析了鄱阳湖水沙特征及其变化规律,以便为鄱阳湖泊形态变化研究以及水、沙资源的合理开发利用提供有利的参考依据。运用水沙相关、上下游泥沙相关法对部分缺测泥沙进行插补,获得1956~2011年的鄱阳湖入、出湖水沙系列数据。利用数理统计法、水沙双累积曲线法、Mann-Kendall法分析鄱阳湖入、出湖径流量与输沙量变化特征,并且探讨了水沙变化的原因。结果表明:(1)入湖径流量和输沙量的年内分配相一致,而长江水沙的倒灌影响了出湖径流量和输沙量的年内分配;(2)鄱阳湖入湖悬移质泥沙从90年代开始下降趋势加剧,而出湖悬移质泥沙1956~2000年整体呈下降趋势,2001~2011年呈现上升趋势;(3)鄱阳湖入、出湖年输沙量出现明显的突变点分别在1998年左右、2003年左右;(4)径流量总体处于相对稳定状态,但近10a来径流量略下降,主要受到降水量变少的影响,入湖输沙量变化受“五河”流域的水库蓄水拦沙、流域水土保持工作加强、人类河床采砂等因素影响;而出湖河段河床深度下切、江湖水面比降加大、人类在鄱阳湖采砂扰动河(湖)床均加大了近10a来出湖悬移质泥沙的输出。
In recent years, research on Poyang Lake water and sediment has focused on the single-station analysis of Poyang Lake and Wuhe River hydrological stations, and most of the data on water and sediment have been used only in the early 21st century, and the missing data are not effectively interpolated. Taking Poyang Lake as a research area, the characteristics of water and sediment in Poyang Lake and its variation are analyzed in order to provide a favorable reference for the research on the morphological changes of Poyang Lake and the rational exploitation and utilization of water and sand resources. Using the correlation of runoff and sediment, the sediment-related law of the upper and lower reaches interpolates some of the missing sediment and obtains the data of the sediment inflow and outflow from the Poyang Lake from 1956 to 2011. Using mathematical statistics, water and sediment double cumulative curve method, Mann-Kendall method analysis of Poyang Lake into and out of the lake runoff and sediment discharge characteristics of the change, and to explore the reasons for changes in water and sediment. The results show that: (1) The annual distribution of runoff into the lake is consistent with the annual distribution of sediment load, while the intrusion of runoff and sediment into the Yangtze River affects the annual distribution of runoff and sediment discharge; (2) Sediment tended to decline from the beginning of the 1990s. However, the suspended sediment from the lake showed a downward trend from 1956 to 2000, with an upward trend from 2001 to 2011. (3) Sediment discharge was significant in Poyang Lake (4) The runoff was generally in a relatively stable state, but the runoff decreased slightly in the past 10 years due to the decrease of precipitation, and the change of sediment load into the lake was affected by the “ Five River ”reservoir basin sediment storage, water and soil conservation efforts to strengthen the human bed and sand mining and other factors; and the depth of the river bed undercut, rivers and lakes surface water ratio increases, human Poyang Lake sand disturbance river (Lake) beds have increased nearly 10 years to the lake suspended sediment output.