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西北旱区水土资源供需矛盾突出,同时作为该区农业生产的瓶颈因素,决定该区经济社会生态可持续发展,因此有必要开展西北旱区农业水土资源相结合的空间情景潜力研究。论文采用水土资源匹配指数计算分析了西北旱区现状年(2010年)农业水土资源的匹配状况,采用农业水土资源利用潜力估算方法计算了西北旱区2020、2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5两种情景下的农业水土资源利用潜力,实现了西北旱区农业水土资源利用潜力的可视化表达。结果表明:2020和2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5排放情景下,相对于2010年,西北旱区各省2020和2030年的总农业水资源量和种植面积均减小。西北旱区6省份2020和2030年两种情景下整体综合效益和整体潜力值均为正,表明各省种植结构整体得到了优化。2020年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5情景下,西北旱区农业水土资源利用潜力分布范围分别在-0.10×10~4~0.83×10~4元/hm~2之间和-1.20×10~4~0.97×10~4元/hm~2之间;2030年RCP 8.5和RCP 4.5情景下,农业水土资源利用潜力分布范围分别在-0.39×10~4~2.17×10~4元/hm~2之间和-0.36×10~4~1.66×10~4元/hm~2之间。
The contradiction between supply and demand of water and soil resources in the arid and semiarid regions of the Northwest China is prominent. At the same time, as the bottleneck factor of agricultural production in this area, the eco-social and ecological sustainable development of this area is determined. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a study on the potential of spatial scenarios combining agricultural and water resources in the arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China. Based on the matching index of water and soil resources, this paper calculated the matching status of agricultural land and water resources in current situation (2010) in Northwest arid region, and calculated the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios in Northwest arid region from 2020 to 2030 by using the potential of agricultural land and water resources Under the potential of agricultural land and water resources to achieve the visualization of the potential of agricultural land and water use in the arid and western regions. The results show that in 2020 and 2030 RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 emissions scenarios, the total agricultural water resources and planted area in 2020 and 2030 in all the provinces in the Northwest arid region decreased compared to 2010. Under the two scenarios of 2020 and 2030 in six provinces of Northwest arid region, the overall integrated benefits and overall potential values are both positive, indicating that the overall planting structure in each province has been optimized. Under the scenarios of RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 in 2020, the potential range of agricultural water and land resources utilization in the arid and arid regions of Northwest China ranges from -0.10 × 10 -4 to 0.83 × 10 -4 yuan / hm 2 and from -1.20 × 10 -4 to 0.97 × 10 ~ 4yuan / hm ~ 2. Under the scenarios of RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 in 2030, the distribution potential of agricultural land and water use is -0.39 × 10 ~ 4 ~ 2.17 × 10 ~ 4yuan / hm ~ 2 And -0.36 × 10 ~ 4 ~ 1.66 × 10 ~ 4 yuan / hm ~ 2.