论文部分内容阅读
Five years after his resignation, Shinzo Abe regained his post and a second chance as Japan’s top leader. Questions loom over whether he will manage to turn the country around.
To ensure a longer term in power, the next prime minister must make some progress in at least two key fields: the economy and diplomacy.
Domestic pressures
On December 16, the Liberal Democratic Party(LDP) led by former Japanese Prime Minister Abe won a landslide victory in the country’s parliamentary election. The LDP won 294 of the lower house’s 480 seats, while the incumbent Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) took only 57. Abe is expected to become the next prime minister at a special parliament session on December 26. The LDP, along with its traditional ally, the New Komeito Party, will form a coalition government.
Hu Jiping, Director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations(CICIR), said the LDP conducted close cooperation with the New Komeito Party during the election, which is one reason why the LDP chose to form a coalition government although it gained an absolute majority in the lower house.
Moreover, to win approval in both upper and lower houses of the parliament, the LDP needs the New Komeito Party’s cooperation. The two parties ran a coalition government from 1999 to 2009, when the DPJ took over. Now they have control over two thirds of the 480 seats in the lower house. In the upper house, however, the DPJ has slightly more seats than the two parties combined.
The planned coalition government doesn’t guarantee a stable administration, said Hu, adding that the government is under the restriction of the parliament, especially the upper house. If the LDP can win the upper house election next July, Abe will likely have a relatively long and stable period of administration.
Abe, coming from a blue-blood politician family, has showed a strongly conservative tendency during the election. He took the position of prime minister in September 2006, but resigned a year later due to “health” problems. At a press conference on December 17, Abe said he had complete confidence in his ability to perform as prime minister for the coming term.
During the election period, the LDP accused the DPJ of creating a “lost Japan” in terms of politics, the economy, diplomacy, se- curity and education during its three years in power. The party vowed during the campaign to “win back Japan.” Japan’s struggling economy was a main cause of the ouster of the LDP in 2009 and the DPJ in 2012. Abe’s first task is to revive the country’s economy. According to a recent poll, 49 percent of Japanese people believe the new government’s top priority is to manage the current economic recession. Japan’s economy has seen negative growth for the past two quarters, performing poorly in the third quarter of 2012 due to decreasing exports influenced by the ongoing global economic downturn, an appreciating Japanese yen and the country’s diplomatic policies. If Abe cannot win hearts on the economy, his LDP will be under tense pressure in next July’s upper house election.
Currently, the Japanese Government’s remaining budget is less than 5 trillion yen(about $59.5 billion). Economists predicted the Abe cabinet will probably have to issue more bonds to cope with growing public expenses, suggesting the “red line” of issuing 44 trillion yen (about $523.6 billion) in government bonds in 2012 will be broken.
Abe also promised the new cabinet will carry out a loose monetary policy to raise Japan’s annual inflation rate to 2 percent in a bid to revive the country’s economy—a stark contrast to the DPJ’s economic policy.
Spurring domestic economic growth, improving employment and giving Japanese people more confidence will be key for the LDP to win the coming upper house election, Hu said.
Abe’s conservative stance and the country’s rising right-wing sentiment have heightened worries in neighboring countries that the LDP might revise the country’s pacifist Constitution to “activate” its right of collective self-defense, elevate the current Self-Defense Forces’ status to a national selfdefense force, ramp up military spending and fortify its maritime security. The 1947 Constitution that insists on pacifism and bans the use of force has made great contributions to several decades of peace and prosperity in Japan. The famously hawkish Abe is one of the voices appealing for the revision of the current Constitution. During his first term as prime minister, he enlarged the power of the Self-Defense Force by upgrading the Defense Agency to the Ministry of Defense.
Diplomatic policy
Chinese observers believed that Abe’s top priority remains economic development. Japan’s prospects of improving its economy rest on its ability to maintain good relations with its neighbor, which strongly object to Japan’s right-wing bent because of the disastrous consequences of World War II. Li Suhua, a researcher on Japanese studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS), said Abe is a pragmatic politician. Li pointed out that not only China and South Korea, but also the United States worried about Abe’s hawkish comments during the election. If he feels enough pressure from both inside and outside the country, Abe is likely to lead cautiously. And though Abe and the LDP intend to revise the Constitution, they cannot currently expect to win the required support from two thirds of upper house parliamentarians or from two thirds of Japanese citizens, said Li.
Abe promised after winning the elec- tion that he will focus on promoting Japan’s diplomatic strength, which he argued was weakened under the DPJ administration. However, Chinese observers do not anticipate many major differences between the two parties’ foreign policies.
Abe announced that he will visit the United States in late January or February 2013 and meet with U.S. President Barack Obama to solidify the Japan-U.S. relationship.
Yang Bojiang, another researcher with the CASS, said Abe’s announcement sent several messages: First, he will completely adhere to the LDP’s traditional policy of turning to the United States and gaining Washington’s trust; second, he hopes to solicit U.S. support in the region; and third, he will look to resume political trust with the U.S. president.
In 2012, Japan’s aggressive actions and comments on disputed territories seriously damaged its relationships with neighbors, especially China. Many Chinese people are worried that Abe’s coming to power will further damage bilateral relations. In an Internet poll carried out on December 17 in China, 78.8 percent of the participants believed the China-Japan relationship will worsen after Abe takes office. And 89.5 percent thought that if Abe revises the current Constitution and upgrades the self-defense force into a self-defense army, the possibility of military conflicts in East Asia will greatly heighten.
Abe said on December 17 that the China-Japan relationship is one of the most important bilateral ties for Japan. He said the current tension between China and Japan has not only damaged bilateral relations, but also harmed Japan’s national interests. Abe said he will increase communication with China so as to revive relations.
Japan cannot develop its economy without the Chinese market, Hu said. The Japanese economy relies more on China than vice versa, especially in the export sector, said Hu, adding Abe’s words proved that he is prepared to improve Japan’s relationship with China for economic reasons. Hu said the LDP’s economic policy will have some influence on China as well. Depreciation of the yen will add more pressure on the yuan’s appreciation. It may also affect China’s foreign trade to an extent.
“The LDP will pay more attention to domestic affairs in the short term. Its diplomatic policy will focus on stabilizing foreign relations instead of conducting provocative actions,” Hu said. He said Abe will not take any steps on any territory dispute, such as dispatching government functionaries to the Diaoyu Islands, because triggering a new round of crisis in bilateral relations is not in Japan’s interests. “The LDP criticized the DPJ’s clumsy diplomacy, so it should be careful not to worsen the China-Japan relationship,” said Hu.
Zhang Zhixin, a scholar with the Capital University of Economics and Business, points out that Abe’s coming to power might create some opportunities for bilateral relations.
Abe considers Washington its top ally, and the United States hopes to strengthen its dominance in East Asia. A confrontation between China and Japan is not the result that Washington wants, said Zhang.
During former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s administration, China-Japan relations had maintained a state of “cold politics and warm economy” for five years. That cold political relationship ultimately influenced bilateral economic cooperation. In 2006, Abe paid an “ice-breaking” visit to China shortly after assuming office, initiating a warm-up period.
The China-Japan relationship is of great importance. China knows it, Japan knows it and the world knows it. If Abe is wise, he will restore ties with China and promote regional stability.
To ensure a longer term in power, the next prime minister must make some progress in at least two key fields: the economy and diplomacy.
Domestic pressures
On December 16, the Liberal Democratic Party(LDP) led by former Japanese Prime Minister Abe won a landslide victory in the country’s parliamentary election. The LDP won 294 of the lower house’s 480 seats, while the incumbent Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) took only 57. Abe is expected to become the next prime minister at a special parliament session on December 26. The LDP, along with its traditional ally, the New Komeito Party, will form a coalition government.
Hu Jiping, Director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations(CICIR), said the LDP conducted close cooperation with the New Komeito Party during the election, which is one reason why the LDP chose to form a coalition government although it gained an absolute majority in the lower house.
Moreover, to win approval in both upper and lower houses of the parliament, the LDP needs the New Komeito Party’s cooperation. The two parties ran a coalition government from 1999 to 2009, when the DPJ took over. Now they have control over two thirds of the 480 seats in the lower house. In the upper house, however, the DPJ has slightly more seats than the two parties combined.
The planned coalition government doesn’t guarantee a stable administration, said Hu, adding that the government is under the restriction of the parliament, especially the upper house. If the LDP can win the upper house election next July, Abe will likely have a relatively long and stable period of administration.
Abe, coming from a blue-blood politician family, has showed a strongly conservative tendency during the election. He took the position of prime minister in September 2006, but resigned a year later due to “health” problems. At a press conference on December 17, Abe said he had complete confidence in his ability to perform as prime minister for the coming term.
During the election period, the LDP accused the DPJ of creating a “lost Japan” in terms of politics, the economy, diplomacy, se- curity and education during its three years in power. The party vowed during the campaign to “win back Japan.” Japan’s struggling economy was a main cause of the ouster of the LDP in 2009 and the DPJ in 2012. Abe’s first task is to revive the country’s economy. According to a recent poll, 49 percent of Japanese people believe the new government’s top priority is to manage the current economic recession. Japan’s economy has seen negative growth for the past two quarters, performing poorly in the third quarter of 2012 due to decreasing exports influenced by the ongoing global economic downturn, an appreciating Japanese yen and the country’s diplomatic policies. If Abe cannot win hearts on the economy, his LDP will be under tense pressure in next July’s upper house election.
Currently, the Japanese Government’s remaining budget is less than 5 trillion yen(about $59.5 billion). Economists predicted the Abe cabinet will probably have to issue more bonds to cope with growing public expenses, suggesting the “red line” of issuing 44 trillion yen (about $523.6 billion) in government bonds in 2012 will be broken.
Abe also promised the new cabinet will carry out a loose monetary policy to raise Japan’s annual inflation rate to 2 percent in a bid to revive the country’s economy—a stark contrast to the DPJ’s economic policy.
Spurring domestic economic growth, improving employment and giving Japanese people more confidence will be key for the LDP to win the coming upper house election, Hu said.
Abe’s conservative stance and the country’s rising right-wing sentiment have heightened worries in neighboring countries that the LDP might revise the country’s pacifist Constitution to “activate” its right of collective self-defense, elevate the current Self-Defense Forces’ status to a national selfdefense force, ramp up military spending and fortify its maritime security. The 1947 Constitution that insists on pacifism and bans the use of force has made great contributions to several decades of peace and prosperity in Japan. The famously hawkish Abe is one of the voices appealing for the revision of the current Constitution. During his first term as prime minister, he enlarged the power of the Self-Defense Force by upgrading the Defense Agency to the Ministry of Defense.
Diplomatic policy
Chinese observers believed that Abe’s top priority remains economic development. Japan’s prospects of improving its economy rest on its ability to maintain good relations with its neighbor, which strongly object to Japan’s right-wing bent because of the disastrous consequences of World War II. Li Suhua, a researcher on Japanese studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS), said Abe is a pragmatic politician. Li pointed out that not only China and South Korea, but also the United States worried about Abe’s hawkish comments during the election. If he feels enough pressure from both inside and outside the country, Abe is likely to lead cautiously. And though Abe and the LDP intend to revise the Constitution, they cannot currently expect to win the required support from two thirds of upper house parliamentarians or from two thirds of Japanese citizens, said Li.
Abe promised after winning the elec- tion that he will focus on promoting Japan’s diplomatic strength, which he argued was weakened under the DPJ administration. However, Chinese observers do not anticipate many major differences between the two parties’ foreign policies.
Abe announced that he will visit the United States in late January or February 2013 and meet with U.S. President Barack Obama to solidify the Japan-U.S. relationship.
Yang Bojiang, another researcher with the CASS, said Abe’s announcement sent several messages: First, he will completely adhere to the LDP’s traditional policy of turning to the United States and gaining Washington’s trust; second, he hopes to solicit U.S. support in the region; and third, he will look to resume political trust with the U.S. president.
In 2012, Japan’s aggressive actions and comments on disputed territories seriously damaged its relationships with neighbors, especially China. Many Chinese people are worried that Abe’s coming to power will further damage bilateral relations. In an Internet poll carried out on December 17 in China, 78.8 percent of the participants believed the China-Japan relationship will worsen after Abe takes office. And 89.5 percent thought that if Abe revises the current Constitution and upgrades the self-defense force into a self-defense army, the possibility of military conflicts in East Asia will greatly heighten.
Abe said on December 17 that the China-Japan relationship is one of the most important bilateral ties for Japan. He said the current tension between China and Japan has not only damaged bilateral relations, but also harmed Japan’s national interests. Abe said he will increase communication with China so as to revive relations.
Japan cannot develop its economy without the Chinese market, Hu said. The Japanese economy relies more on China than vice versa, especially in the export sector, said Hu, adding Abe’s words proved that he is prepared to improve Japan’s relationship with China for economic reasons. Hu said the LDP’s economic policy will have some influence on China as well. Depreciation of the yen will add more pressure on the yuan’s appreciation. It may also affect China’s foreign trade to an extent.
“The LDP will pay more attention to domestic affairs in the short term. Its diplomatic policy will focus on stabilizing foreign relations instead of conducting provocative actions,” Hu said. He said Abe will not take any steps on any territory dispute, such as dispatching government functionaries to the Diaoyu Islands, because triggering a new round of crisis in bilateral relations is not in Japan’s interests. “The LDP criticized the DPJ’s clumsy diplomacy, so it should be careful not to worsen the China-Japan relationship,” said Hu.
Zhang Zhixin, a scholar with the Capital University of Economics and Business, points out that Abe’s coming to power might create some opportunities for bilateral relations.
Abe considers Washington its top ally, and the United States hopes to strengthen its dominance in East Asia. A confrontation between China and Japan is not the result that Washington wants, said Zhang.
During former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s administration, China-Japan relations had maintained a state of “cold politics and warm economy” for five years. That cold political relationship ultimately influenced bilateral economic cooperation. In 2006, Abe paid an “ice-breaking” visit to China shortly after assuming office, initiating a warm-up period.
The China-Japan relationship is of great importance. China knows it, Japan knows it and the world knows it. If Abe is wise, he will restore ties with China and promote regional stability.