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The 112th China Import and Export Fair—commonly referred to as the Canton Fair—concluded on November 4, with an air of pessimism.
According to statistics released by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Light Industrial Products and Arts-Crafts, the total transaction volume for light industrial products declined by 7.67 percent compared to the previous fair, and those for other products, such as machinery and electric products, textiles and apparel, also declined.
The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on October 26 released its Report on Chinese Foreign Trade Development(Autumn 2012), which showed that China’s foreign trade volume only rose by 6.2 percent in the first three quarters this year compared with the same period last year, and is unlikely to reach the goal of 10-percent annual growth set by the Chinese Government at the start of the year.
The export-driven growth model that China has relied on has gradually weakened in the last five years since the outbreak of the global financial crisis.
In a downturn
The global economic recession explains China’s lackluster foreign trade performance, according to the Report on Chinese Foreign Trade Development.
This year has seen the ongoing global financial crisis continuing to impact the world economy as the European sovereign debt crisis deepens, world economic recovery slows and the demand across the international markets drops.
Zhao Jinping, Deputy Director of the Research Department of Foreign Economic Relations at the Development Research Center of the State Council, says among China’s major export destinations, Europe is of highest concern.
In the first three quarters this year, China’s exports to Europe dropped by 5.6 percent while exports to the United States grew by 9.6 percent.
However, the United States’ role in bolstering China’s exports is weakening. From January to June, China’s exports to the United States increased by 13.6 percent, but from January to August, export growth dropped to 10.2 percent, and then to 9.6 percent for the January-September period.
As for trade with Japan, Jin Baisong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, says the territorial dispute between the two neighbors has chilled trade relations.
The report also says China is the biggest victim of trade protectionism. In the first three quarters, China was confronted with 55 trade remedy investigations, up by 38 percent and involving $24.3 billion worth of goods, an eight-fold increase year on year. Influenced by trade frictions in several foreign markets, exports of photovoltaic cells were frequently blocked.
According to the report, some countries restrict imports to support local industries and alleviate employment pressure when their economies show no signs of improvement, thereby obstructing normal international trade and investment activities.
The WTO estimates that from October 2011 to May 2012, WTO members had launched 182 new restrictive trade measures, affecting 0.9 percent of the world’s imports.
As China’s export industries shift from labor-intensive to emerging industries—like green energy—foreign countries are creating more restrictions on China’s exports.
The report states that weak overseas demand will increase trade friction on Chinese exports. Confronted with a complex and challenging environment at home and abroad, China should continue to focus on stabilizing growth and promoting trade balance.
The MOFCOM says it will closely track changes in foreign trade and ensure the implementation of various policies and measures.
Meanwhile, it will work to make China more accommodating to imports in an effort to balance trade with other countries.
Not optimistic
The report states that the environment at home and abroad for China’s foreign trade in 2013 may be slightly better than that of 2012, but restraints still exist.
Outside China, as various countries strengthen their macroeconomic policies, the European debt crisis is mitigated and the U.S. economic recovery becomes stable, the global economic environment may improve.
However, the sovereign debt crisis in developed economies undermines the potential for growth, and the side effects of stimulus policies have become increasingly prominent. Emerging economies face various difficulties and trade and investment protectionism is intensifying. Therefore, low global economic growth will continue.
Within China, as a series of policies and measures for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing external demand are implemented and produce effects, China’s economy has become stable.
China’s Exports to Major Markets (Q1-Q3, 2012)
However, the basis for stable economic growth is not solid and domestic consumption is still subject to restrictions from systemic factors. Some industries are confronted with excess production capacity and businesses still face various other difficulties.
The report says that unfavorable conditions at home and abroad will continue, and export orders will slump in 2013.
The decade starting in 2002 saw the fastest foreign trade growth, with an average annual growth rate of more than 20 percent.
In 2011, China’s exports accounted for 10.4 percent of the world’s total, ranking first for three consecutive years; imports accounted for 9.5 percent of the world’s total, ranking second for three consecutive years.
With profound changes both at home and abroad, the rapid growth of foreign trade in previous years in China will be difficult to sustain, the report says.
Dawn out of darkness
FEWER BUYERS: A foreign businessman negotiates with an exporter during the 112th Canton Fair. Business declines at the fair indicated gloomy foreign trade prospects for China
Although foreign trade is confronted with a harsh reality, Wang Shouwen, Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the MOFCOM, said that moves to diversify markets for the country’s exports are producing a desirable effect.
Wang said in the first half this year, the four traditional markets for the Chinese mainland—Europe, the United States, Japan and Hong Kong—accounted for 56.5 percent of China’s total exports, much lower than its peak of 80 percent, indicating that efforts to diversify China’s export markets are seeing success.
Furthermore, exports are being better distributed across the country. The coastal areas contributed 88.5 percent to the country’s total exports compared to 96 percent in 2010.
Also, the processing industry used to account for more than half of the total trade volume, but now the proportion has dropped to 42 percent.
Five years ago, China put forward a development strategy for restructuring the economy, aiming to shift its economy from one dependent on exports to one driven by consumption.
Yao Jian, spokesman of the MOFCOM, said the most prominent change to China’s foreign trade in 2012 was that general trade grew more rapidly than the processing industry, which indicates that China is relying less on processing fees.
The MOFCOM figures show that in the first three quarters, China’s general trade grew by 5.9 percent over a year ago. Of the total, exports rose by 8.3 percent and im- ports by 3.6 percent, which were respectively 5.3 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points higher than those of the processing industry.
Another point of interest is that while exports to traditional destinations decline, China’s exports to emerging markets are growing rapidly. For example, exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Russia increased by 16.6 percent and 14.5 percent respectively.
Third, exports of independent brands account for a larger proportion. Among all exporting enterprises, 20 percent have independent brands.
Yao said in the future, China will face greater pressure to shift its economy because costs have risen rapidly in recent years, weakening the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industries to some extent.
From 2008 to 2011, the percapita annual salary for urban manufacturing employees grew at an average annual rate of 14.5 percent and that of migrant workers in manufacturing industries grew by 15 percent. As industrialization in neighboring countries accelerates, some enterprises are shifting operations elsewhere.
In the first seven months of this year, the market share of China’s seven categories of traditional labor-intensive products exported to the United States, Europe and Japan declined by 2.1 percentage points, 1.4 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points respectively. Most of the lost shares were squeezed by China’s neighboring low-cost countries.
“When external demand declines, China’s labor-intensive products are facing growing international competition,” said Yao.“Therefore export-oriented enterprises should shift to high-end manufacturing and focus on enhancing product quality.”
According to statistics released by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Light Industrial Products and Arts-Crafts, the total transaction volume for light industrial products declined by 7.67 percent compared to the previous fair, and those for other products, such as machinery and electric products, textiles and apparel, also declined.
The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on October 26 released its Report on Chinese Foreign Trade Development(Autumn 2012), which showed that China’s foreign trade volume only rose by 6.2 percent in the first three quarters this year compared with the same period last year, and is unlikely to reach the goal of 10-percent annual growth set by the Chinese Government at the start of the year.
The export-driven growth model that China has relied on has gradually weakened in the last five years since the outbreak of the global financial crisis.
In a downturn
The global economic recession explains China’s lackluster foreign trade performance, according to the Report on Chinese Foreign Trade Development.
This year has seen the ongoing global financial crisis continuing to impact the world economy as the European sovereign debt crisis deepens, world economic recovery slows and the demand across the international markets drops.
Zhao Jinping, Deputy Director of the Research Department of Foreign Economic Relations at the Development Research Center of the State Council, says among China’s major export destinations, Europe is of highest concern.
In the first three quarters this year, China’s exports to Europe dropped by 5.6 percent while exports to the United States grew by 9.6 percent.
However, the United States’ role in bolstering China’s exports is weakening. From January to June, China’s exports to the United States increased by 13.6 percent, but from January to August, export growth dropped to 10.2 percent, and then to 9.6 percent for the January-September period.
As for trade with Japan, Jin Baisong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, says the territorial dispute between the two neighbors has chilled trade relations.
The report also says China is the biggest victim of trade protectionism. In the first three quarters, China was confronted with 55 trade remedy investigations, up by 38 percent and involving $24.3 billion worth of goods, an eight-fold increase year on year. Influenced by trade frictions in several foreign markets, exports of photovoltaic cells were frequently blocked.
According to the report, some countries restrict imports to support local industries and alleviate employment pressure when their economies show no signs of improvement, thereby obstructing normal international trade and investment activities.
The WTO estimates that from October 2011 to May 2012, WTO members had launched 182 new restrictive trade measures, affecting 0.9 percent of the world’s imports.
As China’s export industries shift from labor-intensive to emerging industries—like green energy—foreign countries are creating more restrictions on China’s exports.
The report states that weak overseas demand will increase trade friction on Chinese exports. Confronted with a complex and challenging environment at home and abroad, China should continue to focus on stabilizing growth and promoting trade balance.
The MOFCOM says it will closely track changes in foreign trade and ensure the implementation of various policies and measures.
Meanwhile, it will work to make China more accommodating to imports in an effort to balance trade with other countries.
Not optimistic
The report states that the environment at home and abroad for China’s foreign trade in 2013 may be slightly better than that of 2012, but restraints still exist.
Outside China, as various countries strengthen their macroeconomic policies, the European debt crisis is mitigated and the U.S. economic recovery becomes stable, the global economic environment may improve.
However, the sovereign debt crisis in developed economies undermines the potential for growth, and the side effects of stimulus policies have become increasingly prominent. Emerging economies face various difficulties and trade and investment protectionism is intensifying. Therefore, low global economic growth will continue.
Within China, as a series of policies and measures for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing external demand are implemented and produce effects, China’s economy has become stable.
China’s Exports to Major Markets (Q1-Q3, 2012)
However, the basis for stable economic growth is not solid and domestic consumption is still subject to restrictions from systemic factors. Some industries are confronted with excess production capacity and businesses still face various other difficulties.
The report says that unfavorable conditions at home and abroad will continue, and export orders will slump in 2013.
The decade starting in 2002 saw the fastest foreign trade growth, with an average annual growth rate of more than 20 percent.
In 2011, China’s exports accounted for 10.4 percent of the world’s total, ranking first for three consecutive years; imports accounted for 9.5 percent of the world’s total, ranking second for three consecutive years.
With profound changes both at home and abroad, the rapid growth of foreign trade in previous years in China will be difficult to sustain, the report says.
Dawn out of darkness
FEWER BUYERS: A foreign businessman negotiates with an exporter during the 112th Canton Fair. Business declines at the fair indicated gloomy foreign trade prospects for China
Although foreign trade is confronted with a harsh reality, Wang Shouwen, Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the MOFCOM, said that moves to diversify markets for the country’s exports are producing a desirable effect.
Wang said in the first half this year, the four traditional markets for the Chinese mainland—Europe, the United States, Japan and Hong Kong—accounted for 56.5 percent of China’s total exports, much lower than its peak of 80 percent, indicating that efforts to diversify China’s export markets are seeing success.
Furthermore, exports are being better distributed across the country. The coastal areas contributed 88.5 percent to the country’s total exports compared to 96 percent in 2010.
Also, the processing industry used to account for more than half of the total trade volume, but now the proportion has dropped to 42 percent.
Five years ago, China put forward a development strategy for restructuring the economy, aiming to shift its economy from one dependent on exports to one driven by consumption.
Yao Jian, spokesman of the MOFCOM, said the most prominent change to China’s foreign trade in 2012 was that general trade grew more rapidly than the processing industry, which indicates that China is relying less on processing fees.
The MOFCOM figures show that in the first three quarters, China’s general trade grew by 5.9 percent over a year ago. Of the total, exports rose by 8.3 percent and im- ports by 3.6 percent, which were respectively 5.3 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points higher than those of the processing industry.
Another point of interest is that while exports to traditional destinations decline, China’s exports to emerging markets are growing rapidly. For example, exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Russia increased by 16.6 percent and 14.5 percent respectively.
Third, exports of independent brands account for a larger proportion. Among all exporting enterprises, 20 percent have independent brands.
Yao said in the future, China will face greater pressure to shift its economy because costs have risen rapidly in recent years, weakening the competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industries to some extent.
From 2008 to 2011, the percapita annual salary for urban manufacturing employees grew at an average annual rate of 14.5 percent and that of migrant workers in manufacturing industries grew by 15 percent. As industrialization in neighboring countries accelerates, some enterprises are shifting operations elsewhere.
In the first seven months of this year, the market share of China’s seven categories of traditional labor-intensive products exported to the United States, Europe and Japan declined by 2.1 percentage points, 1.4 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points respectively. Most of the lost shares were squeezed by China’s neighboring low-cost countries.
“When external demand declines, China’s labor-intensive products are facing growing international competition,” said Yao.“Therefore export-oriented enterprises should shift to high-end manufacturing and focus on enhancing product quality.”