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为改善当前冲出跑道事故在风险辨识环节上存在的不足,提出运用寻因分析(WBA)法,对冲出跑道事故存在的风险进行更加严格、准确的辨识。首先简要介绍WBA方法的内容,然后运用WBA方法对具体事故进行危险源辨识,最后根据辨识出的危险源构建WBA结构图并进行分析。分析结果显示:实例事故的危险源共有14项,分别属于人、机、环,管4个方面。在此基础上,利用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对辨识出的危险源进行权重排序,得出机组人员处置失误、飞行机组技术欠缺、天气原因、跑道表面积水、机组训练问题等5个最主要因素,并针对这5个因素提出改进对策。
In order to improve the shortcomings of current runway accident identification in risk identification, this paper proposes a more rigorous and accurate identification of the risk of out-runway accidents by using the method of factor analysis (WBA). First of all, the content of WBA method is briefly introduced. Then the WBA method is used to identify the hazard of a specific accident. Finally, the WBA structure is constructed and analyzed according to the identified hazard sources. The analysis shows that there are altogether 14 dangerous sources for the case accidents, belonging to four aspects: people, machine, ring and pipe. On the basis of this, we use fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to rank the identified hazard sources and find out the five most important problems, such as fault handling of flight crew, lack of technical skills of flight crew, weather reasons, runoff surface water accumulation and crew training problems Factors, and for these five factors put forward improvement measures.