An Experiment on the Prediction of the Surface Wind Speed in Chongli Based on the WRF Model: Evaluat

来源 :大气科学进展(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:atmywb
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
In this study, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate accurate near-surface wind speed forecasts at kilometer- to subkilometer-scale resolution along race tracks (RTs) in Chongli during the wintertime is evaluated. The performance of two postprocessing methods, including the decaying-averaging (DA) and analogy-based (AN) methods, is tested to calibrate the near-surface wind speed forecasts. It is found that great uncertainties exist in the model's raw forecasts of the near-surface wind speed in Chongli. Improvement of the forecast accuracy due to refinement of the horizontal resolution from kilometer to subkilometer scale is limited and not systematic. The RT sites tend to have large bias and centered root mean square error (CRMSE) values and also exhibit notable underestimation of high-wind speeds, notable overestimation or underestimation of the near-surface wind speed at high altitudes, and notable underestimation during daytime. These problems are not resolved by increasing the horizontal resolution and are even exacerbated, which leads to great challenges in the accurate forecasting of the near-surface wind speed in the competition areas in Chongli. The application of postprocessing methods can greatly improve the forecast accuracy of near-surface wind speed. Both methods used in this study have comparable abilities in reducing the (positive or negative) bias, while the AN method is also capable of decreasing the random error reflected by CRMSE. In particular, the large biases for high-wind speeds, wind speeds at high-altitude stations, and wind speeds during the daytime at RT stations can be evidently reduced.
其他文献
  本文通过调查读者对中文实体电子资源编目利用情况的满意度,分析问题存在的主客观原因,并针对问题从微观和宏观两大方面提出主要对策,以期更加优化和完善中文实体电子资源编
一、关于董其昌山水画“南北宗”说的争议中国山水画分南北二宗之理论,于明万历年间由董其昌、莫是龙、陈继儒三人提出。“立刻得到绝大多数画家的承认,继承发展到了清朝,成
  在《中图法》中,一些类目内涵接近,文字表述有的甚至完全一样,易发生混淆。而混淆的原因,主要是忽视了其上位类的不同。本文对几个典型的相关类目进行分析,探究它们的区别及各
  本文结合美国政府出版物编目的实际工作,总结美国政府出版物丛书的类型,提出美国政府出版物在丛编字段著录中具有多样性和复杂性的问题,并结合丛编实例,进行初步的分析概括,提
请下载后查看,本文暂不支持在线获取查看简介。 Please download to view, this article does not support online access to view profile.
  本文采用文献计量学的原理与方法,对2006-2013年期间被CNKI期刊全文数据库收录的核心期刊并CSSCI有关RDA的载文进行统计分析,以便更好地了解RDA的研究现状,引发我国编目界对
我国广大农村地区呈现出高山、丘陵和平原等多样化地貌地形分布的结构形式,若能因地制宜、分类施策,不断研发区域性的、适用于不同地形的新型农业装备,无疑是确保脱贫攻坚与
期刊
Use of data assimilation to initialize hydrometeors plays a vital role in numerical weather prediction (NWP). To directly analyze hydrometeors in data assimilat
  本文阐述了国家图书馆中文名称规范工作的发展历程,介绍了中文个人名称规范记录的制作流程,并对如何保证中文个人名称规范的著录质量提出了建议。
  规范控制工作的社会化发展是编目工作发展的必然趋势。文章从规范控制工作的发展现状、存在的问题,充分认识规范控制工作,依据规则加强规范控制工作的标准化程度,深化规范控