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2017年,全球经济增速将会依然低迷,美元汇率仍将保持强势,大宗商品价格可能呈现低位盘整格局。各种因素的综合作用将使新兴市场经济体在2017年仍会面临较为严峻的挑战。2010年至2015年,全球新兴市场与发展中经济体GDP增速连续五年下降,由2010年的7.5%下降至2015年的4.0%。尽管这一期间新兴市场与发展中经济体的绝对增速依然高于发达经济体,但发达经济体GDP增速已经在2012年触底,在2013年至2015年期间呈现持续反弹态势(由2012年的1.2%上升至2015年的2.1%)。此外,在2014年与2015
In 2017, global economic growth will remain sluggish, the dollar will remain strong, and commodity prices may show a pattern of low consolidation. The combined effect of various factors will make emerging market economies still face more severe challenges in 2017. From 2010 to 2015, the global growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies declined for five consecutive years from 7.5% in 2010 to 4.0% in 2015. Although the absolute growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies is still higher than that of developed economies during this period, the GDP growth of developed economies has bottomed out in 2012 and has continued to rebound from 2013 to 2015 (from 2012 1.2% of the year to 2.1% in 2015). Also, in 2014 and 2015