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目的分析深圳市宝安区空气PM2.5污染情现况,预测区内空气PM2.5污染发展趋势,为有关空气PM2.5的预警工作与防控措施提供参考依据。方法于2013年10月至2015年9月期间,使用颗粒物采样器在深圳市宝安区4个街道开展空气PM2.5连续监测工作,应用支持向量机预测空气PM2.5浓度趋势。结果监测期间,区内空气PM2.5的日均浓度平均值为(43.58±27.30)μg/m~3,月均浓度平均值为(45.79±20.91)μg/m~3,2014年空气PM2.5浓度年均值为45.82μg/m~3,超标倍数为1.31倍。空气PM2.5浓度日均值超标率为13.42%,1-3月与10-12月的空气PM2.5浓度日均值与日均值超标率均较4-6月与7-9月高。使用空气PM2.5浓度月均值数据建立支持向量机,均方差为86.57,相关系数为0.82。模型验证结果显示,实际数据与预测数据差别没有统计学意义(T=36,P>0.05),数据预测能力较理想。支持向量机预测2015年10月至2016年1月空气PM2.5浓度呈上升趋势,经过1月高峰后回落。结论深圳市宝安区空气PM2.5污染情况严重,应提高对空气PM2.5污染问题的重视,并在每年10-12月、1-3月期间加强有关空气PM2.5污染的预防与宣教工作,降低空气PM2.5污染对人群的危害。
Objective To analyze the present situation of air PM2.5 pollution in Bao’an District of Shenzhen City and predict the development trend of air PM2.5 pollution in the area, providing reference for the early warning work and prevention and control measures of air PM2.5. Methods During the period from October 2013 to September 2015, PM2.5 was continuously monitored in 4 streets in Bao’an District of Shenzhen City using particle samplers. The forecasting trend of PM2.5 concentration in air was predicted by using SVM. Results During the monitoring period, the average daily PM2.5 concentration in the district was (43.58 ± 27.30) μg / m 3 and the average monthly average concentration was (45.79 ± 20.91) μg / m 3. 5 concentration average annual value of 45.82μg / m ~ 3, exceed the standard multiple of 1.31 times. The daily average PM2.5 concentration exceeded the standard of 13.42%. The daily average and daily average excess rates of PM2.5 in January-March and October-December were both higher than those in April-June and July-September. The use of air PM2.5 monthly average concentration data to establish support vector machine, the mean square error was 86.57, correlation coefficient of 0.82. The results of model validation showed that there was no significant difference between the actual data and the predicted data (T = 36, P> 0.05), and the data prediction ability was better. Support vector machine forecast The air PM2.5 concentration is on the rise from October 2015 to January 2016, and then drops after the peak in January. Conclusion The PM2.5 air pollution in Bao’an District of Shenzhen City is serious, PM2.5 pollution should be increased attention to the issue of air pollution, and in the annual 10-12 months, 1-3 months to strengthen the PM2.5 air pollution prevention and education work , Reduce the harm of air PM2.5 pollution to the population.