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如果说2016年是多个“黑天鹅”诞生之年,那么2017年则是“黑天鹅”起飞之年。“英国脱欧”、特朗普当选及其外交内政等将如何影响世界大格局和世界秩序的演变?前不久的慕尼黑国际安全会议颇为引人注意,尤其是会议主题:“后真相、后西方、后秩序”直接触及世界局势变化的根本。德国媒体更是坦言,旧的世界秩序可能走向终结。这大概是“二战”以来西方人第一次质疑西方国家主导的国际秩序的生命力。国际秩序是否失序也许还充满争议,但是,国际社会正在经历剧烈的政治震荡却是有目共睹。
If 2016 is the birth year for multiple Black Swan, then 2017 is the year for Black Swan to take off. How the “Brexit”, the election of Trump and its diplomatic and internal affairs will affect the evolution of the world pattern and the world order? The recent International Security Conference in Munich has drawn considerable attention, especially the theme of the conference: Truth, post-west, post-order "directly touched the fundamental changes in the world situation. The German media even admit that the old world order may come to an end. This is probably the first time since W: World War II that Westerners have questioned the vitality of the international order led by Western countries. Whether or not the international order is out of order may also be controversial. However, it is evident to all that the international community is undergoing intense political turmoil.