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针对日益严峻的碳减排形势,对高能耗产业进行投资控制,加速产业结构升级是中国实现减排目标的重要途径。采用经济—气候集成评估模型CIECIA,对产业结构自然进化的减排作用进行预测,以此为基础对投资控制措施的减排效果进行研究,评估了投资结余分配的碳治理效果。结果显示:高能耗部门的GDP占比在中国的产业结构进化过程中大幅下降,但其减排作用有限;投资控制具有显著的减排效果,加速中国的产业转型和升级,但对经济的负面影响不容忽视;由投资控制措施造成的资本流出使得以高能耗部门为主导的俄罗斯受益最大;使用投资结余提高第三产业投入并投资研发创新,是中国实施投资控制措施下保持经济增长、降低减排损失、实现减排目标的有效手段。
In view of the increasingly severe situation of carbon emission reduction, investment control of high energy consumption industries and accelerating the upgrading of industrial structure are important ways for China to achieve its emission reduction targets. Using the economic-climate integrated assessment model CIECIA, we predict the effect of natural evolution of industrial structure on emission reduction. Based on this, we study the emission reduction effect of investment control measures and evaluate the carbon governance effect of investment balance allocation. The results show that the share of GDP in the high-energy sector has dropped significantly during the evolution of industrial structure in China, but its effect on emission reduction is limited. Investment control has a significant emission reduction effect, accelerating China’s industrial restructuring and upgrading, but negatively affecting the economy The impact can not be ignored; the outflow of capital due to investment control measures has benefited Russia, which is dominated by high-energy consumption sectors; using investment balances to increase investment in tertiary industry and invest in research and development innovation is the key to maintaining economic growth and reducing investment under China’s investment control measures Row loss, an effective means to achieve emission reduction targets.