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构建了长江经济带分区域碳排放LEAP模型,核算了现状排放量,并对2015—2030年碳排放变化进行了情景分析。结果表明:(1)2015年长江经济带碳排放总量为41.61亿吨CO_2,空间上东部区域排放占比最高,贡献源上以终端能耗碳排放为主。2030年左右碳排放将达到峰值,基准情景峰值约为57亿吨CO_2,碳排放强度较2015年累计下降46.83%,中部区域将成为碳排放最高板块。(2)终端能耗部门中工业、第三产业,能源加工转换部门中火力发电,涉工业过程排放的水泥和钢铁产业是碳减排的关键部门。(3)随着发电结构的变化,能源加工转换碳排放有可能在2025年前达到峰值,工业过程碳排放控制将逐渐成为碳减排面临的新挑战。
The LEAP model of regional carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was constructed, the current emissions were calculated, and the scenario of carbon emissions changes from 2015 to 2030 was analyzed. The results show that: (1) In 2015, the total carbon emission in the Yangtze River economic belt was 4.161 billion tons of CO 2, accounting for the highest percentage of emissions in the eastern region in terms of space, with the contribution of end-use carbon emissions as the main contributor. The carbon emissions will peak around 2030. The peak value of the baseline scenario is about 5.7 billion tons of CO2. The intensity of carbon emissions will drop 46.83% over 2015, and the central region will become the highest carbon emission. (2) The cement and steel industries in thermal power generation and industrial processes in the industrial, tertiary and energy conversion departments in the terminal energy sector are the key carbon emission reduction departments. (3) With the change of power generation structure, carbon emissions from energy conversion may reach the peak before 2025, and carbon emissions control in industrial processes will gradually become a new challenge for carbon emission reduction.