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目前,我国经济结构性失衡主要表现为总需求结构性失衡和货币结构性失衡。就经济的总需求结构而言,我国长期以来都是外需(净出口)拉动作用明显,而内需不足,呈现总需求长期结构性失衡。另外,货币流动性过剩更加剧了中国经济结构的失衡,其中外部失衡表现为贸易盈余迅速上升,内部失衡表现为投资相对于消费的过快增长。根据分析,笔者认为,短期内人民币汇率仍将上升,而长期必将存在一定幅度的下跌,并以此提出相关政策建议。
At present, the main structural imbalances in China’s economy are the structural imbalance of aggregate demand and the structural imbalance of currencies. As far as the total demand structure of economy is concerned, our country has long been the driving force of external demand (net exports), while the domestic demand is insufficient, presenting a long-term structural imbalance in aggregate demand. In addition, the excessive liquidity of the currency exacerbated the imbalance in China’s economic structure, in which the external imbalances showed a rapid rise in trade surpluses and the internal imbalances manifested itself in the excessively rapid growth of investment over consumption. According to the analysis, I believe that in the short term RMB exchange rate will continue to rise, and in the long term there will certainly be a certain degree of decline, and to make relevant policy recommendations.