论文部分内容阅读
在最新的温室气体排放情景下,利用基于德国Max-Planck气象研究所为政府间气候变化委员会(TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,IPCC)第四次评估报告而最新发展的气候模式(ECHAM5/MPI-OM1),对三种不同的温室气体排放假设(B1,A1B,A2)进行了数值模拟.在此基础上,着重就全球海洋表层温盐结构、温盐环流和北极海冰的变化对模拟结果进行了深入分析.研究揭示,到21世纪末,在三种CO2排放情景下全球平均海表温度分别上升2.5℃,3.5℃,4.0℃,尤以北极地区升温最为显著,达10.0℃以上;全球海洋表面淡水通量变化的最大负值区位于副热带地区,热带东太平洋降雨显著增加.温盐环流(THC)在所研究的三种排放情景下均减弱,减弱量值分别达20%,25%和25.1%,北半球海冰覆盖面积在A1B情况下减少达50%左右.
Using the latest climate model developed based on the Fourth Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by Max-Planck Meteorological Institute in Germany (ECHAM5 / MPI-OM1) under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenario, Different kinds of greenhouse gas emission assumptions (B1, A1B, A2) were simulated. On the basis of this, the simulation results were emphatically analyzed based on the changes of global ocean surface temperature and salinity structure, thermohaline circulation and Arctic sea ice. The study revealed that by the end of the 21st century, the global mean sea surface temperature increased by 2.5 ℃, 3.5 ℃ and 4.0 ℃ respectively in the three scenarios of CO2 emissions, especially in the Arctic. The global mean surface seawater flux was over 10.0 ℃. Of the maximum negative value region is located in the subtropical region and the rainfall in the tropical eastern Pacific is significantly increased. THC decreased and decreased by 20%, 25% and 25.1% respectively under the three emission scenarios studied. The northern hemisphere sea Ice coverage is reduced by about 50% in the case of A1B.