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2008年前三季度江苏省南京市零售贷款业务发展良好,其中个人贷款业务中个人房产抵押贷款增长较快,违约率较低。对于城市商业银行来说,发放个人房产抵押贷款是主营收入重要来源之一,对银行的稳健经营和持续发展有着重要意义。然而在从紧货币政策和房地产市场加大调控力度的宏观形势下,南京市房地产价格波动未来有扩大的趋势,从而有可能对银行个人房产抵押贷款业务带来风险。本文借助期权定价理念对南京市个人房产抵押贷款利率合理定价进行初步的计算。
In the first three quarters of 2008, the retail loan business in Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, developed soundly. Among them, individual real estate mortgage loans grew rapidly and the default rate was relatively low. For urban commercial banks, the issuance of individual real estate mortgage loans is one of the major sources of revenue, which is of great significance to the steady operation and sustainable development of banks. However, under the macro-control of tight monetary policy and the real estate market, the real estate price in Nanjing is expected to expand in the future. As a result, it is possible to bring risks to the real estate mortgage loan business of banks. In this paper, we use the concept of option pricing to calculate the reasonable pricing of personal real estate mortgage loan in Nanjing.