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文章基于伯格斯模型,分析检验了服务贸易的净进口与我国货物价格贸易条件恶化之间的关系,初步证明了该模型在我国的适用性。进一步地,文章对2004-2008年我国价格贸易条件恶化有所趋缓这一特征进行了分析。结果表明,不同服务部门的净进口对我国货物贸易条件的影响不尽相同。文章得出的政策启示在于:当考察我国服务业开放和服务贸易自由化的收益时,要同时注意到货物价格贸易条件恶化可能带来的福利损失;我国在制定服务业对外开放与服务贸易自由化发展战略时,采取逐步开放和参与的战略尤为重要;另外,可以优先加强对通信、建筑、计算机和信息服务、咨询以及电影音像五大类服务部门的扶持以促进其出口。
Based on the Burgers model, the article analyzes and tests the relationship between the net import of service trade and the deteriorating of terms of trade of goods in China, and proves the applicability of the model in our country. Further, the article analyzes the characteristics that the deterioration of the terms of trade in our country has been slowed down in 2004-2008. The results show that the net imports of different service sectors have different impacts on the terms of trade of goods in China. The policy enlightenment from the article lies in: When examining the benefits of liberalization of service trade and service liberalization in our country, we should also notice the welfare loss that may be caused by the worsening of the terms of trade in goods; and when making preparations for the opening up of the service sector and the liberalization of trade in services It is particularly important to adopt a strategy of gradual opening up and participation in the development strategy. In addition, it is possible to give priority to strengthening the support of the five major service sectors of communications, construction, computer and information services, consulting and audiovisual products to promote their exports.