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系统工程是本世纪最有希望的新工程技术之一,特别是,应用系统工程的技术和方法进行武器系统、军事装备的系统分析、效能-费用分析和方案选优、方案论证、研制费用的预算等等,更是有现实意义的新课题。本文以导弹武器系统的研制为例,研究和介绍了建立费用模型的基本思想、方法及其在实际中的应用。文章首先给出建立导弹武器系统研制费用模型的基本思想,假设了费用模型构造的基本形式。然后引进威布尔曲线的特例“人力利用曲线”,经论证导出可以选择“人力利用曲线”或威布尔分布的一般曲线来描述费用的规律性。接着,文章阐述了建模的具体方法。并且指出:“只用一个费用模型来估算和预测”,其结果往往并不理想。主张“尽可能地通过多方面的努力来验证一个模型”。为了顾及国情,提高应用模型估算的准确性,作者还提出了“在实际应用中还必须将上述的定量模型和专家的定性预测结合起来”的见解。同时,也提出了具体实施的步骤。文章最后是应用实例。
Systematic engineering is one of the most promising new engineering techniques in this century. In particular, the systematic analysis of weapon system and military equipment by using the techniques and methods of Systematic Engineering, efficiency - cost analysis and program selection, program demonstration, research and development cost Budget and so on, it is a new topic of practical significance. This paper takes the development of missile weapon system as an example to study and introduce the basic idea and method of establishing cost model and its application in practice. The article first gives the basic idea of establishing a cost model for missile weapon system development, and assumes the basic form of expense model construction. Then, we introduce the special case of “human utilization curve” of Weibull curve, and derive that we can choose the general curve of “human utilization curve” or Weibull distribution to describe the regularity of expense. Then, the article elaborates the specific method of modeling. And pointed out: “Only one cost model to estimate and forecast”, the result is often not ideal. Advocated “as much as possible through a variety of efforts to verify a model.” In order to take into account the national conditions and improve the accuracy of the application model estimation, the author also put forward the opinion that “the quantitative model and the expert’s qualitative prediction must be combined in practice.” At the same time, also put forward the concrete implementation steps. Finally, the article is an application example.