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以股灾开始、以债灾结束的2016年过去了。但债市的调整是否已经过去,还是它的拐点到来,大趋势已经向下?投资者心中充满疑问。我们可以看到,2016年年末的这轮债市调整,利率债的调整幅度相对更大,十年期国债期货甚至一度跌停。当然,不可否认,这其间夹杂着美国国债利率上升,银行理财纳入MPA监管,季末资金周期性紧张、国债“萝卜章”事件等的影响因素。但总体来看,流动性拐点的到来,或许才是事件发生的真
In the beginning of the stock market crash, 2016 ended in a debt crisis. However, whether the adjustment of the bond market has passed or the turning point of its arrival, the downward trend has taken place. There is a lot of doubt in the minds of investors. We can see that this round of bond market adjustment at the end of 2016 has resulted in a relatively larger adjustment for interest rate and debt, and the 10-year Treasury futures even dropped below its limit. Of course, it is undeniable that during this period mixed with the rising interest rates of the U.S. Treasury bonds, the bank’s financial management into the MPA regulation, quarterly capital cyclical tensions, national debt “radish chapter ” events and other factors. But overall, the arrival of the turning point in liquidity may be the real event