论文部分内容阅读
该专家系统知识库研制目标是未来24—36小时,在黄、渤海地区出现≥8级的北强风。该知识库用1975—1983年资料,根据700hPa天气图分成三种主要天气类型。其因子获得是:计算94次过程的22个物理量因子场,诊断分析了其中 9次强风过程,取其中的9个物理量场和经过普查、筛选得到的45个经验因子,用PP法建立的77个预报方程取其中48个方程构成了两个独立的因子库。将这些因子根据对北强风贡献的大小分级,然后模拟预报员的思路组建入天气型规则和有无北强风预报规则共84条,来预报黄、渤海地区北强风。该专家知识库用1986年冬半年资料进行历史验证预报准确率达83.3％。1987年冬半年投入业务试报成功地报出了2次北强风过程。实践证明该专家知识库具有比较强的预报功能,可供沿海有关省、市、台业务部门推广使用。
The expert system knowledge base development goal is 24-36 hours in the future, in the Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea area appears ≥ 8 North strong wind. This knowledge base is based on 1975-1983 data and is divided into three main weather types based on the 700 hPa weather map. The factors are obtained by calculating 22 physical quantities factor fields of 94 processes, diagnosing and analyzing 9 strong wind processes, taking 9 of these physical fields and 45 empirical factors after screening and screening, using the PP method to establish 77 Among them, 48 equations form two independent factor banks. These factors were classified according to their contribution to the North Strong Wind, and then the forecaster’s thinking was used to build up a total of 84 rules for weather-type prediction and whether there was a strong or no-strong wind forecasting rule to predict the north strong winds in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea. The expert knowledge base used the data of the winter of 1986 for historical verification to forecast the accuracy of 83.3%. In the winter of 1987, it put into operation in the first half of the year and successfully reported 2 North Strong Winds. Practice has proved that the expert knowledge base has comparatively strong forecasting functions and can be used for promotion by the relevant provincial, municipal and Taiwan coastal business units.