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本文基于有效市场理论,选择经验学习模型,以玉米市场为例,采用Java语言作为实验运行平台,对跨国粮商扩张能否危及到我国粮食市场稳定进行计算实验检验。结果表明,现有制度框架下跨国粮商玉米市场影响的安全边界为2100万吨,目前益海嘉里、嘉吉等市场占有量不足200万吨,尚有1900吨市场空间。据此,本文认为远未涉及到垄断及国内粮食市场稳定,提出应鼓励跨国粮商进入提升我国粮食市场效率、借鉴管理经验等政策建议。
Based on the theory of efficient markets, this paper chooses the empirical learning model. Taking the corn market as an example, this paper uses the Java language as the experimental running platform to test whether the expansion of multinational grain merchants can endanger the stability of China’s grain market. The results show that under the existing institutional framework, the safety margin affected by the corn market of transnational grain merchants is 21 million tons. At present, the market share of Yihai Kerry and Cargill is less than 2 million tons and there are still 1,900 tons of market space. Accordingly, this article considers that it is far from monopolization and the stability of the domestic grain market, and proposes that policies should be encouraged to encourage multinational grain importers to improve the efficiency of China’s grain market and learn from management experience.