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以GTAP模型为基础建立计量模型,利用1992-2014年中美两国时间序列数据估算了GDP对关税的弹性,进而得出TPP关税协议对中美GDP的影响。结果表明:中国GDP对关税的弹性显著为负,假如中国加入TPP并按要求完成关税削减,GDP增速将增加4.33个百分点。考虑到9年过渡期,相当于这9年间年均GDP增速增加0.48个百分点;美国由于产品技术优势,GDP增速会因TPP关税协议在10年过渡期内年均增加0.72个百分点。因此,TPP关税协议符合中国利益,中国应以积极姿态面对TPP谈判。
Based on the GTAP model, the econometric model was established. Based on the time series data of China and the United States from 1992 to 2014, the elasticity of GDP to tariff was estimated, and then the impact of the TPP tariff agreement on the GDP of China and the United States was obtained. The result shows that the elasticity of China’s GDP to tariffs is significantly negative. If China joins the TPP and completes the tariff reduction as required, the GDP growth rate will increase by 4.33%. Considering that the 9-year transition period is equivalent to an increase of 0.48 percentage points in the average annual GDP growth during the 9-year period, the average growth rate of GDP in the United States will increase by 0.72 percentage point due to the technical advantages of the products due to TPP tariff agreement during the 10-year transition period. Therefore, the TPP tariff agreement is in China’s interest and China should face the TPP negotiation with a positive attitude.