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本文通过单位根ADF检验对2001~2010年上半年我国大陆各地区房地产价格泡沫进行了初步检验,结果显示除西部地区外其他地区房地产价格都面临着不同程度的泡沫。然后通过建立时变风险溢价模型和三变量VAR模型对除西部以外的剩余各地区房地产价格泡沫进行了度量,结果显示:北京、上海、广东以及天津的房地产市场都存在着不同程度的泡沫,其中北京和上海房地产市场的泡沫已经达到了20%以上,广东和天津市场也已经达到15%以上,而东部和中部地区的房地产市场泡沫还处于10%以下,使用该方法可以度量任何一地区、省份、市区的房地产价格泡沫度,可以为房地产商、购房人和地方及中央政府提供相应的决策依据。
This article through the unit root ADF test on the first half of 2001-2010 real estate price bubble in various regions of China conducted a preliminary test results show that in all regions except the western region real estate prices are facing different levels of bubbles. Then by measuring the time-varying risk premium model and the three-variable VAR model, we measured the real estate price bubbles in the remaining regions except the western region. The results show that the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin all have different degrees of bubbles, among which The real estate bubble in Beijing and Shanghai has reached more than 20%, the market in Guangdong and Tianjin has reached more than 15%, while the real estate market bubble in the eastern and central regions is still below 10%. Using this method, we can measure the price of any region, province , The urban real estate price bubble degree, for real estate, buyers and local and central government to provide the appropriate basis for decision-making.