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由于受沉积环境的影响,低渗透油气田储层砂体连通性差,渗透率低,油水流动阻力大,生产规律完全不同于常规油气藏,生产中油气产量变化极其复杂,预测难度大。介绍了双对数模型、威布尔模型、俞启泰模型、灰色系统模型和微分模拟模型等5种目前进行油气产量预测的主要模型,以渤海湾盆地高5块低渗透油气田为研究对象,利用生产动态数据,运用5种模型分别对研究区产量进行了预测和分析,对比了各种方法在油气田不同开发阶段的预测精度,指出灰色系统模型对预测产量的单调上升或单调下降较为准确,而其他模型则可用于对油田开发指标的全程预测。但对渤海湾盆地高5块而言,5种常用模型的预测都存大较大的误差,为此重新拟合出了一种精度较高的线型预测模型。
Due to the influence of sedimentary environment, reservoir connectivity in the low permeability oil and gas fields is poor, with low permeability and large oil-water flow resistance. The production law is completely different from conventional oil and gas reservoirs. The production of oil and gas in production is extremely complicated and the prediction is difficult. The five main models for oil and gas production prediction, such as the logarithmic model, the Weibull model, the Yu Qitai model, the gray system model and the differential simulation model, are introduced. Taking the five low permeability oil and gas fields in Bohai Bay Basin as the research object, Data were used to predict and analyze the yield of the study area respectively. The prediction accuracy of the various methods in different development stages of the oil and gas fields was contrasted. The monotonic increase or monotonous decrease of the forecast output of the gray system model was more accurate. Other models It can be used to predict the full range of oilfield development indicators. However, for the five high-level Bohai Bay basins, the prediction of the five commonly used models has a large error, so a new type of linear prediction model with high accuracy is re-fitted.