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虽然这两年我国乘用车市场处于低速增长期,但是我们判断,到2030年汽车市场仍将处于快速发展区间,增长率相当于GDP增长率的1.5倍,年均大概为13%~15%,速度基本上是前高后低的。这个判断主要是根据我们对汽车先导国家汽车发展历史的实证分析得出来的结论,这些国家自身汽车市场的发展都要经历两个高速增长期。第一个高速发展期,是千人保有量达到5辆,我们国家第一个时期经历了8年;第二个高速增长期是从千人20辆发展到千人130辆。我们国家大概在2030年能达到这个水
Although China’s passenger car market has been in a period of low growth during the past two years, we judge that the auto market will still be in a rapid development zone by 2030 with a growth rate equivalent to 1.5 times the GDP growth rate and an annual average of 13% to 15% , The speed is basically high before low. This judgment is mainly based on our conclusion of the empirical analysis of the automobile development history of automobile leading countries that the development of their own automobile market goes through two periods of rapid growth. In the first period of rapid development, the number of holdings per thousand reached five and our country experienced the first period of eight years. The second period of rapid growth was from 1,000 to 130. Our country can reach this water probably by 2030