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在“九五”计划实施的后期阶段,提前对“十五”时期(2001-2005年)的GDP增长速度作出科学的分析及预测十分重要。对GDP增长速度的科学预测,应该既考虑“可能会怎样”,又应该考虑“应该是怎样”,既有历史规律的分析,又有未来要求的分析。因此,对“十五”期间GDP增长速度的预测,我们既进行了基于其自身历史发展规律的实证分析,又进行了基于社会经济发展需要的规范分析,并将此两者与专家预测结合起来,得出最终预测值。
In the latter stage of the Ninth Five-year Plan period, it is very important to make scientific analysis and forecast in advance of the GDP growth rate in the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period (2001-2005). The scientific prediction of the rate of GDP growth should consider both “what may be possible” and “what should be”, both historical and future requirements. Therefore, for the prediction of the GDP growth rate during the 10th Five-Year Plan period, we conducted both an empirical analysis based on the law of its own historical development and a normative analysis based on the needs of social and economic development, combining these two with the prediction of the experts , Come to the final predictive value.