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今年6月24—27日,在西柏林自由大学举行了“地震预测—灾害评价,危险性分析及震害预防”国际学术讨论会。 限于当前的科技水平,人们对地震孕育和发生的全过程的认识还是相当肤浅的。就地震预报来说,特别是在时间上,其成功的机会极少,並经常造成大震的虚报和漏报。因此,地震预报(earthguake prediction)能否为社会服务这一问题引起了人们的争议。
From June 24 to 27 this year, an international symposium on “Earthquake Prediction - Disaster Evaluation, Risk Analysis and Earthquake Prevention” was held at the Free University of West Berlin. Limited to the current level of science and technology, people’s understanding of the whole process of earthquake breeding and occurrence is quite superficial. In the case of earthquake prediction, there is very little chance of success, especially in time, and it often causes false and underreported earthquakes. Therefore, the issue of whether earthguake prediction can serve the society has aroused people’s controversy.