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2015年,中国及全球小麦供求状况基本平稳,但是不利的宏观经济环境导致全球大宗商品价格出现明显地下滑,小麦市场也受到影响。国际市场价格大幅下滑,国内价格处于弱势。2016年受到2015年全球小麦名义价格下降明显及近期不利天气影响,全球小麦生产会有所下滑。美联储加息、回收货币显示美国量化宽松投放的大量货币流动性已经转变为现实流动性,后期国际商品价格将会在流动性冲击中出现反弹。为防止后期不利宏观经济的影响,政府应当加大对农业生产支持力度,让农业产业更好服务总体经济,确保整个经济与社会的平稳运行。
The supply and demand of wheat in China and the world were basically stable in 2015, but the unfavorable macroeconomic environment led to a marked decline in global commodity prices and the wheat market was also affected. The international market prices dropped sharply, the domestic price is at a disadvantage. In 2016, the global wheat production will decline due to the notable drop in the nominal global wheat price in 2015 and the adverse weather in the near future. The Fed’s rate hike and the recovery of currencies showed that the massive liquidity liquidity that has been put into circulation by the United States has been transformed into real liquidity and that the prices of international commodities will rebound in the liquidity shock in the latter part of the world. In order to prevent the adverse macroeconomic impact in the later period, the government should increase its support for agricultural production so that the agricultural industry can better serve the overall economy and ensure the smooth operation of the entire economy and society.